… A gender gap has long been evident in U.S. politics: Men more often vote Republican and women are more likely to back Democrats. Both of these trends have accelerated in recent years. This year, it’s Democrats who are on the defensive. In the 10 most competitive Senate races, they […] Read more »
Chick-Fil-A country vs. Starbucks country
Chuck Todd explains how the 2014 elections can be seen as a battle between rural “Chick-Fil-A country” vs. urban “Starbucks country.” Meet the Press Read more »
Razor-Thin Lead for the GOP
Are things getting better for Senate Democrats? Certainly many of the better (more reliable) statistical models seem to suggest they are. … The conventional wisdom also appears to have shifted over the past week. What, if anything, has happened to cause this shift? The most significant reason seems to be […] Read more »
Inside the Readings on Voters’ Party Preference
Midterm watchers are bracing for a possible change in control of the Senate this fall, which would put Republicans in charge of both houses of Congress for the first time in eight years. This big shift in party power, however, comes amid few signs of a corresponding shift in the […] Read more »
Fewer Conservative Dems in Arkansas Adds to Tight Midterm
As Democratic U.S. Sen. Mark Pryor battles to keep the seat to which he was re-elected in 2008, the Democratic Party’s declining ability to attract conservatives in Arkansas may complicate his re-election prospects. In a state that is consistently more conservative than the nation, conservative Democrats may have been the […] Read more »
Stop trying to predict the future
… I’m as geeky as they come, but I don’t see much point in arguing over which forecasting model is more accurate when we can just hold on for another 46 days, and then we’ll know for sure. The purpose of political science is not to give us a six-week […] Read more »