Republicans have taken a clear lead over the last month on the question of whether likely voters favor a Republican-controlled Congress or one dominated by Democrats. Some polls using this generic question show the Republicans ahead by as many as 7 points among likely voters, a tally rivaling the polls […] Read more »
And Then There Were Four: The Senate Field Narrows
With six weeks to go before the midterm elections, the playing field has started to narrow. Increasingly, it appears that control of the Senate will hinge on as few as four key races. Based on the past two Senate elections, polling in September is highly predictive of the final outcome. […] Read more »
Is It Real, or Is It a Political Head Fake?
… It seems that during most national elections, at some point between Labor Day and Election Day, there is a political head fake that takes place, something that briefly makes you wonder or starts to convince you that there has been a change in direction. Usually though, things just revert […] Read more »
The secret truths of election forecasting
In case you missed it, election forecasting can be fractious. There is a “war” among various forecasting models of the Senate elections, we are told. I’m here to tell you: no, there’s not. Or at least, much less of a war than a grabby headline would suggest. And so, in […] Read more »
Republicans, More Than Democrats, See 2014 Elections as Important
Democratic voters don’t appear to think the 2014 elections are as important as Republicans do. With Republicans aiming to regain control of the Senate, three-quarters of GOP voters say this year’s congressional elections are much more important or somewhat more important than other elections, a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News/Annenberg […] Read more »
In heated midterm contests, GOP candidates explore a move to the middle
… Buoyed by President Obama’s deep unpopularity, the Republican Party is positioned to reclaim a national governing majority for the first time in nearly a decade by winning control of the Senate. But Republicans have little margin for error, and most key races remain tossups. That’s in part because many […] Read more »