On a press call/webinar today, Matt Barreto, Co-Founder of Latino Decisions, and Frank Sharry, Executive Director of America’s Voice, discussed the results of a new nationwide poll of 600 Latino voters that provides fresh data on overall Latino voter enthusiasm; party preference in Congressional and Senate races; and how the […] Read more »
Black Vote Seen as Last Hope For Democrats to Hold Senate
The confidential memo from a former pollster for President Obama contained a blunt warning for Democrats. Written this month with an eye toward Election Day, it predicted “crushing Democratic losses across the country” if the party did not do more to get black voters to the polls. “African-American surge voters […] Read more »
As midterm campaigns enter stretch run, Ebola and other twists set stage for drama
Republicans are bullish that they will win control of the Senate, make small gains in the House and retain many governor’s offices this year. But just over two weeks from Election Day, fears about Ebola and Islamic State militants, along with sudden, surprising scrambles in key states, have added new […] Read more »
Southern Evangelicals: Dwindling—and Taking the GOP Edge With Them
Midterm elections are all about turning out base constituencies. Over the last few decades, there have been few more reliable voters for Republicans than white evangelical Protestants. This year, however, GOP candidates may be getting less help from this group—not because white evangelical Protestants are becoming less supportive or less […] Read more »
Why late shifts in the polls probably won’t help Democrats in Senate races
All of the major Senate forecasting models, including ours at Election Lab, now rely heavily on averages of public polls. This raises the question of whether those averages will be correct on Election Day, and whether any misses could affect which party manages to retain control of the Senate. In […] Read more »
The Trench Warfare Begins
With just a little more than two weeks to go before the midterm election, Democrats are increasingly in need of a break or two to salvage their Senate majority. … There are two potential problems for Republicans that could cost them the majority in an election that certainly seems highly […] Read more »