Control of the U.S. Senate is coming down to the wire, with Democrats and Republicans locked in tight races in the key contests that will determine the majority in that chamber of Congress, according to six new NBC News/Marist polls. The momentum in these races, however, has swung mostly in […] Read more »
Senate Update: The Republican Advantage Is Consistent But Not Decisive
If you’re a regular reader of FiveThirtyEight you’ll know that our Senate forecast has said pretty much the same thing every day. When we officially launched our model in early September, it gave Republicans a 64 percent chance of winning a majority in the Senate. Today, the number is similar: […] Read more »
A Republican Edge, With More Stability
The Republicans still hold an edge in what has become a very stable fight for the Senate, according to the last round of data from the New York Times/CBS News/YouGov survey of more than 80,000 respondents. CONT. Nate Cohn, New York Times Read more »
What Colorado’s elections this year could say about 2016
Over the next nine days, the focus in Colorado will be on the competitive Senate race between Democratic Sen. Mark Udall and his challenger, Republican Rep. Cory Gardner, and on the gubernatorial contest that pits Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper against former Republican congressman Bob Beauprez. The results will have immediate […] Read more »
Republicans Are Surging in the Prediction Markets
Is there now a clear leader in the race for control of the Senate? I think so, but it really depends on whether you’re listening to the polls or the prediction markets. CONT. Justin Wolfers, New York Times Read more »
Tied national congressional ballot in poll of off-year voters
Two weeks before election day, the generic Congressional ballot remains deadlocked at 46 percent among off-year 2014 voters, just slightly outperforming recent polling averages and far outpacing 2010 national exit polling that showed Democrats losing the national House ballot 45-53 percent. Looking ahead, Democrats remain well-positioned for 2016—among the 2012 […] Read more »