“It all comes down to turnout.” That’s one of the biggest clichés in politics. It’s also true in one-point races. Welcome to Iowa, Kansas and North Carolina. According to the latest round of Fox News Senate battleground polls, none of the front-runners in those states hits the 50 percent mark. […] Read more »
FiveThirtyEight’s Gubernatorial Forecasts: A Lot Of Really Close Races
Most of our focus this year has been on the battle for the U.S. Senate. But 36 states will hold gubernatorial elections Tuesday. We hope it’s not too late to give you some polling-based forecasts of how they might turn out. CONT. Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight Read more »
Yes, Republicans will take the Senate. But here’s a GOP reality check.
Whatever the precise size of the incoming wave — and we’ll leave it to forecasters and surfers to fight over that — most models are predicting a Republican takeover of the Senate, as well as gains in the House, following Tuesday’s midterm vote. Such a victory gives the Republican Party […] Read more »
High anxiety, low expectations as election nears
As Election Day nears, America is the Land of the Fearful. Voters are rattled by the Ebola virus, braced for years of conflict against the terrorist group Islamic State and still worried about jobs, a nationwide USA TODAY Poll finds. Two-thirds say the nation faces more challenging problems than usual; […] Read more »
Don’t Overstate Voter Enthusiasm, Pollsters Warn
Polling has consistently shown this year that the groups most enthusiastic about voting skew Republican—men over age 50, tea-party supporters and seniors among them. It’s one of the signs, commentators have often said, that Tuesday night is going to be a good one for the GOP. But here’s a caution: […] Read more »
Bet on a Republican Senate Majority
While many races remain close, it’s just getting harder and harder to envision a plausible path for the Democrats to retain control of the Senate. Ultimately, with just a few days to go before the election, the safe bet would be on Republicans eventually taking control of the upper chamber. […] Read more »