Public Opinion Strategies conducted a national telephone survey of 800 likely voters (560 landline; 240 cell phone), from October 30-November 2, 2014. … Economic issues will be a deciding factor in how people vote in this year’s elections. Nearly all voters (96%) say economic issues are important to their vote, […] Read more »
Final Update: Republicans Have A 3 In 4 Chance Of Winning The Senate
After two months of forecasting, it comes down to this: Republicans are favored to win the Senate. Their chances of doing so are 76 percent, according to FiveThirtyEight’s Senate forecast, which is principally based on an analysis of the polls in each state and the historical accuracy of Senate polling. […] Read more »
How Big a Night Will It Be for the GOP?
The odds of Republicans winning a Senate majority are obviously getting very high. Indeed, it would be a real shocker if Democrats held the GOP to a net gain of five seats or less, preventing a takeover of the majority. Unresolved, however, remains the question of just how big a […] Read more »
Obama Effect Likely Negative in Key Senate Races
In an election in which President Barack Obama’s mediocre approval ratings have cast a shadow on Democrats’ efforts to maintain their slim Senate majority, his image has remained generally weak in six states featuring competitive races. This includes sub-40% approval ratings over the last several months in Iowa (38%), Kansas […] Read more »
Des Moines Register pollster on criticism of Senate numbers: ‘I’ve heard it before.’
J. Ann Selzer may be the single most powerful pollster in America. She runs the Des Moines Register’s Iowa poll, the gold standard of survey research in what is the single most-watched state, politically speaking, in the country. So when Selzer’s final numbers in the heated Senate race between state […] Read more »
The Tectonic Plates of 2014
Candidates matter, campaigns matter, spending matters, and local quirks matter, too. But, like all elections, this fall’s midterm has also been heavily shaped by systemic structural factors that transcend the competitions between individual candidates. As the campaign careens toward its close, keeping some of these factors in mind may help […] Read more »