… Nationally, 52% of voters backed Republican candidates for Congress, while 47% voted for Democrats, according to exit polls by the National Election Pool, as reported by The New York Times. The overall vote share is similar to the GOP’s margin in the 2010 elections, and many of the key […] Read more »
Voters Know Themselves Better Than the Pollsters Do
Yesterday’s elections provide further ammunition for the idea that we should pay less attention to polls of voters’ intentions, and more to polls asking them who they think will win. … Our analysis suggests that surveys of voters’ expectations were, once again, more accurate than the standard survey of voters’ […] Read more »
States Benefiting Most From Obama’s Health Law Elected Republicans
In places where the uninsured rate plummeted this year, Republicans still scored big electoral victories. Arkansas, Kentucky and West Virginia — states that saw substantial drops in the proportion of their residents without insurance — all elected Republican Senate candidates who oppose the Affordable Care Act. Control of the West […] Read more »
Why The Elephants Are Dancing: Understanding the November 2014 Election
Public Opinion Strategies’ Election Night Poll shows the 2014 election was defined by major dissatisfaction about the direction of the country, the economy, and President Obama: On Election Day, roughly two-thirds (65%) of voters said the country is headed off on the wrong track. The weekend before the election 64% […] Read more »
How the Faithful Voted
In the 2014 midterm elections, the Republican Party enlarged its majority in the U.S. House of Representatives with continued strong support from white evangelicals and people who attend religious services regularly. In addition, the GOP appears to have made inroads among some religious constituencies that traditionally have not been as […] Read more »
The Polls Were Skewed Toward Democrats
For much of this election cycle, Democrats complained the polls were biased against them. They said the polls were failing to represent enough minority voters and applying overly restrictive likely-voter screens. They claimed early-voting data was proving the polls wrong. They cited the fact that polls were biased against Democrats […] Read more »