Buried in the blue and red bars of the exit poll results from Tuesday’s midterm elections is an astonishing figure. Asian Americans were nearly evenly split in their voting in congressional races: 50 percent to 49 percent, with a nod to Democrats by the faintest of recordable margins. … Is […] Read more »
The Enduring Republican Grip on the House
… By picking up at least a dozen House seats in the elections last Tuesday, the Republicans cemented a nearly unassailable majority that could last for a generation, or as long as today’s political divides between North and South, urban and rural, young and old, and white and nonwhite endure. […] Read more »
A Wave—but No Tsunami
… Whenever a party easily beats the point spread with seats to spare, it has had a great night. There’s no denying Republicans had a great night. Sure, this was a wave. Whether to use a term like “wave” or even the one we coined in 1994—the “political tsunami”—is a […] Read more »
Shellacking, the Sequel
… Tuesday’s resounding Republican sweep closely followed the script of the GOP’s landslide in 2010, and it exposed perhaps even more deeply the limits of the modern Democratic coalition—while underscoring the party’s persistent inability to convince enough whites that they will benefit from activist government. But just as President Obama […] Read more »
One Reason the Democrats Lost So Big in Midterms: Exceptionally Low Voter Turnout
When turnout falls, Democrats perform worse in elections. That general pattern is well known. In making their forecasts, pollsters try to estimate what that turnout will be on the basis of previous elections. This year, pre-election opinion polls were off by the largest amount seen in over 20 years. Could […] Read more »
G.O.P. Is Making Progress Toward Presidency but Is Still Playing Catch-Up
After five of six presidential elections in which the Republicans have lost the popular vote, this year’s midterm elections point toward a plausible Republican path to winning the White House. .. But the Republican path is also narrow, one the Democrats could block if they reassemble their support among the […] Read more »