Pundits tell us all the time that media coverage is driving the current Presidential primary, that Donald Trump and other outsider candidates are only doing well because they attract so much attention from the press. But in an era when people can choose their media sources to match what they […] Read more »
Surprises Almost Certain in Iowa and New Hampshire
The voters of Iowa and New Hampshire jealously guard their first-in-the-nation franchise in the presidential nomination process, and they view themselves as the public’s screening committees for White House wannabes. … In 2016 it will be a shock if Iowa and/or New Hampshire don’t rearrange the presidential playing field. After […] Read more »
Are Primary Polls Finally Predictive? No, but This Is When the Fun Starts
You have undoubtedly heard that primary polls aren’t necessarily very predictive far from an election. With just a month to go until the Iowa caucuses, I’m writing to tell you that … it’s still true. Yes, even with that little time left until Iowa, the first contest of the 2016 […] Read more »
Forecasting models using Facebook data can be more accurate at predicting election outcomes than polling
… As Facebook morphed into a ubiquitous social utility used by seventy-one percent of Americans and “popular across a diverse mix of demographic groups,” my colleague, Ed Erickson, and I speculated that Facebook data might very well provide a reliable measure of campaign effectiveness and enable the development of a […] Read more »
The Key To The GOP Race: The Diploma Divide
The latest polls of the Republican presidential primary show a party badly divided by education: Donald Trump’s strong showings are entirely attributable to huge leads among voters without a college degree, while voters with a degree are split among several candidates. But the Republican Party’s “diploma divide” isn’t new: It […] Read more »
When Will Iowa Republicans Make Up Their Minds?
… A key question I often get from the press these days is: When will Iowans finally make up their minds? Based on the astonishing number of candidates still under consideration in the Republican field, my answer is: Late, very late. History shows that even in an normal year, Iowans […] Read more »