Are Primary Polls Finally Predictive? No, but This Is When the Fun Starts

You have undoubtedly heard that primary polls aren’t necessarily very predictive far from an election. With just a month to go until the Iowa caucuses, I’m writing to tell you that … it’s still true. Yes, even with that little time left until Iowa, the first contest of the 2016 […] Read more »

Forecasting models using Facebook data can be more accurate at predicting election outcomes than polling

… As Facebook morphed into a ubiquitous social utility used by seventy-one percent of Americans and “popular across a diverse mix of demographic groups,” my colleague, Ed Erickson, and I speculated that Facebook data might very well provide a reliable measure of campaign effectiveness and enable the development of a […] Read more »

The Key To The GOP Race: The Diploma Divide

The latest polls of the Republican presidential primary show a party badly divided by education: Donald Trump’s strong showings are entirely attributable to huge leads among voters without a college degree, while voters with a degree are split among several candidates. But the Republican Party’s “diploma divide” isn’t new: It […] Read more »