As promised in my last post on the September Model I’m be posting a rolling Electoral College forecast … based on past election results and October national and state-level trial-heat polls. As with the September model, these state-level forecasts were developed with Jay DeSart. … The results for today are: […] Read more »
The Impact of Anti‐Black Racism on Approval of Obama’s Job Performance and on Voting in the 2012 Election
… In this paper, we explore the extent of implicit and explicit anti‐Black attitudes in 2012 and the degree to which such attitudes shape the American public’s evaluations of Mr. Obama’s performance in office and their intentions regarding voting in the 2012 election. In doing so, we compare the current […] Read more »
Ohio, the Bull’s-eye State
… Ohio has played a central role in presidential campaigns for many years, but at no time has its significance been as great as in 2012. It is as if the entire presidential campaign is being waged in this complex and sprawling state. … A handful of other states remain […] Read more »
Virginia: Obama clings to slim lead
President Obama is clinging to a slender, four-point lead over Republican Mitt Romney in Virginia, as both sides ramp up already aggressive campaigns in the crucial battleground state, according to a new Washington Post poll. Obama outpolled Romney, 51 to 47 percent, among likely voters, although he lost the clearer […] Read more »
Election Movie Marathon: Featuring Frankenstein Luntz
Election Movie Marathon: Brian McFadden, The Strip (New York Times) Read more »
House elections spell a Republican story and victory
President Obama remains at least an even bet to win reelection. Democrats are favored to hold on to the Senate — an outcome few prognosticators envisioned at the beginning of the year. And yet, with a little more than a week to go, the party holds almost no chance of […] Read more »