Evangelical voters are rallying strongly in favor of Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump. Indeed, the latest Pew Research Center survey finds that despite the professed wariness toward Trump among many high-profile evangelical Christian leaders, evangelicals as a whole are, if anything, even more strongly supportive of Trump than they were […] Read more »
Hillary Clinton’s lead in the polls may be larger than it seems. Here’s why.
… In 2012, many polls underestimated how many minorities would vote and how many would vote for Obama. … In 2016, the country is even more diverse. Pollsters need to take steps to more accurately estimate the political attitudes and behavior of black, Latino and Asian American voters. CONT. Gabriel […] Read more »
Trump Isn’t Winning Enough White Voters
… One big reason Trump is trailing — by an average of 4 to 6 percentage points, depending on which aggregator you use — is because, despite all the bluster, he isn’t doing any better than Romney did among white voters. … To win, Trump would need to improve on […] Read more »
The Mythical Swing Voter
Most surveys conducted during the 2012 U.S. presidential campaign showed large swings in support for the Democratic and Republican candidates, especially before and after the first presidential debate. … We conclude that vote swings in 2012 were mostly sample artifacts and that real swings were quite small. While this account […] Read more »
Clinton, Sanders and the Underrated Power of the Black Voter
If you were asked to assess African-American voting power, you might think about the long history of disenfranchisement that still lingers today, in troubles in Ferguson, Mo.; in efforts to roll back the Voting Rights Act; or in recent moves to limit voting access around the country. So it can […] Read more »
Republicans and Hispanics: The Extent of the Damage Done
The Republican Party has ended up someplace where many of its leaders didn’t want it to be — divided about how much it cares about Hispanic voters. Surveys of Latinos conducted by the Gallup Organization, NBC News and CNN all show that the party’s brand has been hurt by the […] Read more »