… In my last post I discussed one such model – the one developed by Emory political scientist Drew Linzer and featured at his Votamatic website. … Today I want to discuss a second state-based forecast model created by political scientists Tom Holbrook and Jay DeSart. Their model is even […] Read more »
15% of Registered Voters Have Already Cast Ballots
Fifteen percent of registered voters nationwide have already cast their ballots in this year’s election, according to Gallup Daily tracking for the week ending Oct. 28. That is up sharply from 5% a week earlier. The overall percentage either having already voted or planning to vote before Election Day has […] Read more »
All tied up
After days of small ticks up and down, the Washington Post-ABC News tracking poll starts its second week with a tied contest: 49 percent of likely voters support President Obama and exactly the same number back Republican Mitt Romney. … The current contest appears to be just as knotted up […] Read more »
Edge on the Middle Class Helps Obama Counterpunch
With the election a week away Mitt Romney faces persistent skepticism about his commitment to the middle class, a vulnerability for the Republican challenger that’s keeping the race locked tight – a precise dead heat in the latest ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll, 49-49 percent. Barack Obama, for his part, […] Read more »
In Swing States, a Predictable Election?
The conventional wisdom about this year’s presidential race is that it has broken out of stasis to become wildly unpredictable. And yet, after a period of polling turmoil following President Obama’s convention in Charlotte, N.C., and Mitt Romney’s sharp rebound after the first presidential debate in Denver, the polling in […] Read more »
Which Candidate’s Narrative Will Prevail?
… Republican Mitt Romney’s campaign argues that it has momentum at the end, and that momentum is decisive in a close race such as this one. … Democrat Barack Obama’s campaign maintains that the power of the president’s coalition is undiminished, its underlying strength not fully reflected in polls using […] Read more »