There’s been a lot of speculation recently about how the remaining undecided voters will break over the next few days. … Even with the sampling noise in our data and other associated uncertainties (is the model appropriately capturing all the drivers of choice? Who will really turn out and vote?), […] Read more »
The other 2012 election contest: which pollster and polling method will win?
People like me are always looking into the polling data to see what has worked well in the past to correctly forecast election results for the future. The problem is that there are a number of polling methods and ideas that worked well in prior years, yet are in opposition […] Read more »
Race for the White House a dead heat
With less than a week before the election, the race for the White House is dead even: Barack Obama and Mitt Romney receive 46 percent each, according to a Fox News poll of likely voters. Romney had a razor-thin 46-45 percent edge earlier this month, after the first presidential debate […] Read more »
Obama gets boost in swing-state polls
President Obama got welcome final-week polling news Wednesday as new surveys in several keenly contested states showed him holding or expanding a lead. … The raft of new numbers bolstered the campaign narrative from the president and his aides, who claim the electoral college math doesn’t add up for Romney […] Read more »
Some things to watch in the final days
It is easy to get confused in the final week of a presidential campaign, and we are at that point in Campaign 2012. There are conflicting polls in battleground states, unexpected moves by the campaigns into new states, widely varying assessments from the partisans in both parties and persistent spinning […] Read more »
Storm Response Earns Obama Praise Amid the Election’s Deadlock Drama
Likely voters of all political stripes give broadly positive ratings to Barack Obama’s response to the devastating storm that smashed the East Coast this week. Whether it makes a difference in the long-deadlocked presidential election is another question. [cont.] Gary Langer, ABC News Read more »