American electoral history is mainly a story of two parties. But every now and then, a third party or independent candidate makes a significant imprint on an election. In recent years, the main impact of third-party candidacies has been to play the role of spoiler, hurting one major-party candidate more […] Read more »
Obama leads in Iowa, running neck and neck in N.H, Wis.
Less than a week before Election Day, President Barack Obama holds a statistically significant lead over Republican nominee Mitt Romney in the battleground of Iowa, while the two candidates are locked in tight races in New Hampshire and Wisconsin, according to new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls. [cont.] Mark Murray, […] Read more »
Obama Vs. Hoover
The question Americans should be asking ourselves isn’t whether we’re better off than we were four years ago. It’s whether we’re better off than we were 80 years ago. … Mitt Romney himself has drawn attention to the implicit parallel between the crises faced by Hoover and Obama. “This is […] Read more »
Both campaigns say they like their positions in polls
Why wait until Election Day? A majority of Americans think President Barack Obama will win re-election, according to a Gallup poll on Wednesday. By a 54%-34% margin, the public thinks Obama will defeat Republican nominee Mitt Romney on November 6. But the actual race for the White House appears to […] Read more »
A Polling Quandary—in the Buckeye State
There is a peculiar divergence between various public opinion polls at the moment. On the one hand, Mitt Romney has built a narrow but durable lead in the national polls, averaging around a 1 percent advantage over the last three weeks. This has cheered the hearts of conservatives everywhere. Yet, […] Read more »
A Partisan Advantage for Obama?
As I pointed out at the end of August, I see political and economic context of the election as favoring Mitt Romney, though not overwhelmingly so. … But one thing I find interesting is that despite a reversal of fortunes in the last few weeks, there seems to be a […] Read more »