… For the first time in memory, it is the Democratic, not the Republican nominee, counting on Ohio as his firewall in an achingly close campaign. Republicans almost always have viewed Ohio as a linchpin in their race to 270 Electoral College votes. This year, holding Ohio is the centerpiece […] Read more »
Obama Can Thank Early Negative Ads for His Advantage
America faces two general elections. One is occurring in seven or so swing states, where voters have experienced saturation advertising—mostly negative—since mid-June. … In the states that have experienced the minimalist campaign, the popular-vote numbers are even or maybe up for Republican nominee Mitt Romney by a bit. … But […] Read more »
In Defense of the Undecided
… It is possible that political signals like party mean less to late-deciders because politics is like a foreign country to them. But another possibility is that some of their ideas conflict with the positions their putative party takes. Here’s an example. [cont.] Lynn Vavreck, UCLA (NYT) Read more »
Nonvoters: Who They Are, What They Think
In the final days before Tuesday’s election, most of the focus will be on those likely to cast votes. But a sizable minority of adults choose not to vote or are unable to vote. By their absence, they also will affect the outcome. Nonvoters are numerous; in 2008, they constituted […] Read more »
Undecided Voters in the 2012 Presidential Election
… This election season, polls have consistently shown few undecided likely voters. So, who are these people? How much do they matter? If they do vote, in whose direction will they break? In order to look at these questions, the data from the NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist battleground state polls […] Read more »
The Simpsons: Mr. Burns Endorses Romney
An election eve appeal from Montgomery Burns. Read more »