In the lead-up to the election, there was a lot of talk about how Latinos would turn out in record numbers to stop Donald Trump. But not only did Trump end up winning, exit polls also indicated that he won 29 percent of the Latino vote — better than Mitt […] Read more »
No, Voter Turnout Wasn’t Way Down From 2012
Stories are still circulating a week after the election that turnout fell sharply from 2012. That’s almost certainly not true. The confusion is the result of news outlets trying to pin down voter turnout figures quickly in a system that doesn’t count millions of votes until weeks after the election. […] Read more »
How Much Do ‘October Surprises’ Move The Polls?
People are already calling it an “October surprise” — an unexpected moment late in the campaign that could change the trajectory of the election. The news that the FBI is looking into a new batch of Hillary Clinton’s emails (found on the computer of Anthony Weiner) is certainly surprising. And […] Read more »
The Iowa Outlier, Where Obama Voters Go Trump
In an election where a dominant narrative is Hillary Clinton trying to expand the Democratic electoral map, Iowa is a noteworthy an outlier. The Hawkeye State voted for Barack Obama for president in 2008 and 2012 by good margins, and yet most polls show Donald Trump with a slight lead […] Read more »
Trump Underperforms Romney Among Every Group — WSJ/NBC News Poll
To win in November, obviously, Donald Trump will have to rack up stronger margins over his opponent than Mitt Romney did in 2012. And for Hillary Clinton to win, she can’t do significantly worse than Barack Obama did. So what’s keeping this race tight? Both candidates, in different ways, are […] Read more »
Hillary Clinton Is Getting Surprisingly Little Extra Lift From Blacks and Hispanics
The conventional wisdom holds that sweeping demographic shifts propelled Barack Obama to the presidency. So here’s a simple question: Why haven’t these demographics swept Hillary Clinton to a big polling lead and a smooth glide to victory? Donald J. Trump, after all, has alienated just about every growing demographic group […] Read more »