10 Questions That Will Help Decide the Election – Bill McInturff, Public Opinion Strategies [cont.] Read more »
Predictions You Can Bank On
… What follows is how I try to forecast the winner when a U.S. president is running for re-election. First, I want to know as Election Day approaches how voters feel about conditions in the country. My favorite question is, “Do you think things are generally headed in the right […] Read more »
The big choice
… America’s two mainstream political parties are not actually very ideological. They continue to exist as competitive parties because they are doggedly devoted to the service of their constitutive jumble of interest groups. … If you wish to understand the real choice between Mr Obama and Mr Romney, try to […] Read more »
Why Romney Is Likely to Win
… Both political science and the political polls too often imply a scientific precision that I no longer think actually exists in American politics. I have slowly learned that politics is a lot more art than science than I once believed. Accordingly, what follows is a prediction based on my […] Read more »
The Morning After: What a Narrow Win Would Mean For Obama’s Second Term
… I cannot remember an election in which the gap was greater between the magnitude of our problems and the substance of our politics. With rare exceptions, Mitt Romney has alternated vacuity and self-contradiction, with interludes of fuzzy math. Regrettably, Barack Obama has done little better. A president who entered […] Read more »
The Simple Case for Saying Obama Is the Favorite
If you are following some of the same people that I do on Twitter, you may have noticed some pushback about our contention that Barack Obama is a favorite (and certainly not a lock) to be re-elected. I haven’t come across too many analyses suggesting that Mitt Romney is the […] Read more »