With a slight, unexpected lift provided by Hurricane Sandy, Mother Nature’s October surprise, President Barack Obama appears poised to win his second term tomorrow. Our final Electoral College projection has the president winning the key swing states of Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio and Wisconsin and topping Mitt Romney, […] Read more »
Virginia could go either way
Virginia remains a toss up. That’s the takeaway from a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll out from the battleground released Sunday. Just two days before what is shaping up to be a very tight presidential election, President Barack Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney remain in a statistical tie […] Read more »
What We Already Know
There are a number of conclusions that can be drawn from the 2012 presidential contest without trying to predict the winner. As the polls are about to open, let’s look at some of these developments, which fall into four broad categories that will shape the future of politics. Demographic Trends: […] Read more »
The Pundits vs. Political Science: Debating the Impact of the First Debate
As Election 2012 heads down to the wire, it is fascinating to see how the pundits view this race compared to where the political scientists do (at least as I interpret them). They often seem to be looking at two different events. [cont.] Matthew Dickinson, Middlebury College Read more »
CNN National Poll: Dead heat between Obama and Romney
It’s all tied up, according to a new national poll released two days before the presidential election. And the CNN/ORC International survey not only indicates a dead heat in the race for the White House, but also on almost every major indicator of President Barack Obama and Republican nominee Mitt […] Read more »
Roadtrip Explains Tight Race in Virginia
Of all the toss-up states left in the 2012 campaign, Virginia may be the most difficult to get a read on. Driving across the complex mix of communities, economies and politics is like driving through several different states. … Somewhere in that mix is a formula of support, turnout and […] Read more »