Barack Obama has inched to a slim advantage in the closing days of the 2012 presidential race, breaking out of a long-running deadlock with Mitt Romney to a 50-47 percent contest in the final-weekend tracking poll by ABC News and The Washington Post. While still lacking a majority in vote […] Read more »
Romney 49%, Obama 48% in Gallup’s Final Election Survey
President Barack Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney are within one percentage point of each other in Gallup’s final pre-election survey of likely voters, with Romney holding 49% of the vote, and Obama 48%. After removing the 3% of undecided voters from the results and allocating their support proportionally to […] Read more »
How Biased Do the Polls Need to Be for Romney to Win?
Back in 2000, before 538 and Pollster existed, we circulated a simulation of Electoral College outcomes using state polls. Our forecast was a likely Gore win, with a likelihood of 85%. We saw Florida as pivotal, and Gore as having an 89% chance of winning. Of course, the accuracy of […] Read more »
Did Hurricane Sandy Blow Romney Off Course?
If President Obama wins re-election on Tuesday, the historical memory of the race might turn on the role played by Hurricane Sandy. Already, some analysts are describing the storm as an “October surprise” that allowed Mr. Obama to regain his footing after stumbling badly in the first presidential debate and […] Read more »
Majorities Satisfied With Conduct of 2012 Campaigns
Although only one candidate can win Tuesday’s presidential election, both major-party candidates may be gratified to know that majorities of Americans are satisfied with how each campaign has been conducted. Fifty-eight percent of Americans are satisfied with the conduct of Barack Obama’s campaign, and 54% are satisfied with the conduct […] Read more »
impreMedia-LD tracking poll: If Latino vote is high, Obama will carry 4 key swing states
impreMedia & Latino Decisions today released the last in a series of 11 weekly tracking polls with results suggesting President Obama is poised to win a record high share of the Latino vote, and in turn likely to win key swing states and enough electoral college votes to retain the […] Read more »