On the eve of Election Day, I am a happy man. Why is this, you ask? Because the fundamentals-based forecasts issued by almost a dozen political scientists before Labor Day are – in the aggregate – looking remarkably prescient. [cont.] Matthew Dickinson, Middlebury College Read more »
Bill McInturff: Very Cool Look at Yesterday and Today’s National Surveys
My interests this cycle include the question about what percent of the vote will be white versus non-white and party ID in the exit poll and the margins among Independents. The attached document is an insider’s look at these issues across seven surveys released yesterday and today. [cont.] Bill McInturff, […] Read more »
Democracy Corps: A 4-point lead for Obama
The final national survey for Democracy Corps shows Obama ahead with a 4-point lead in the presidential race, 49 to 45 percent (actually, 3.8 points to be exact). This represents a slight improvement since our last poll, which fielded before the final presidential debate, when we had Obama ahead by […] Read more »
Twilight or Breaking Dawn?
… Tens of millions of Americans have divided themselves into Team Barack and Team Mitt, passionately arguing which prospective leader is better for our nation. But we have no book to read to discover who wins. Will we have twilight or breaking dawn for conservatives? … Win or lose, we […] Read more »
Karl Rove: Election 2012, State of the Race
Karl Rove’s final 2012 electoral map. [cont.] Read more »
In Ohio, Polls Show Benefit of Auto Rescue to Obama
If the polls are correct, and President Obama wins a narrow Electoral College victory on Tuesday, the pivotal moment of the 2012 presidential race may have actually occurred in 2009. About two months after taking office, Mr. Obama set the terms of the government’s rescue of General Motors and Chrysler, […] Read more »