Barack Obama neutralized Mitt Romney on the economy, beat him on empathy and again turned the curve of America’s demographic change to Democratic advantage, winning a second term despite an unemployment rate that posed a major threat to his 2012 campaign. Deeply vulnerable on an economy that 77 percent of […] Read more »
Obama Wins by Marrying the New Democratic Coalition With the Old
President Obama won a second term by marrying the new Democratic coalition with just enough of the old to overcome enduring economic disenchantment and a cavernous racial divide. In many places, particularly across the Sun Belt, Obama mobilized the Democrats’ new “coalition of the ascendant,” winning enough support among young […] Read more »
So, what happened?
… As a researcher, I’m sad to admit that I let my hopes overtake the data. The facts, based on well-conducted survey research, always pointed to an Obama win. But many Republicans, me included, tried to find a way to argue that the data didn’t mean what it said on […] Read more »
Election Results 2012: Nate Silver on How He Got It Right
Nate Silver and Megan Liberman discuss President Obama’s re-election win. Read more »
Signal forecast goes 50-50 with Florida outstanding
Last February, the Signal predicted that President Barack Obama would win reelection with 303 electoral votes to his opponent’s 235–a prediction we made before the Republican party had chosen the identity of that challenger. This struck many people as absurd at the time: There were nine months of campaigning left, […] Read more »
Early exit polls: 60% say economy top issue
Sixty percent of voters who cast ballots on Election Day or earlier say the economy is the most important issue in their vote, according to an early CBS News exit poll. … Seventeen percent of voters cited health care as their top issue. … These are early exit polls, and […] Read more »