Barack Obama secured re-election by maintaining the coalition that gave him victory four years ago: black and Hispanic voters, young Americans, women and Americans with post-graduate degrees. These outnumbered Mitt Romney’s supporters among white men, older Americans and people who have not been to college. [cont.] Peter Kellner, YouGov, Model […] Read more »
How the pollsters won the 2012 US election, mostly
The election has come and gone. … The result was a big victory for many number analysts. I wrote Tuesday about the polling aggregates circling around 303-332 electoral votes for Obama, with Florida being the closest state. Florida ended up being the tightest state. … It should not be forgotten, […] Read more »
2012 Poll Accuracy: After Obama, Models And Survey Science Won The Day
While the election’s biggest winner was President Barack Obama, the other victory on Tuesday night went to the careful application of reason, data and, yes, to the science of modern survey research. The losers were the amateur poll mavens who sought to “unskew” the polls and the pundits who saw […] Read more »
Changing Face of America Helps Assure Obama Victory
Barack Obama retained enough support from key elements of his base to win reelection, even as he lost ground nationally since 2008. In particular, Obama maintained wide advantages among young people, women, minorities, and both the less affluent and the well-educated. … Evidence of the demographic transformation of the electorate […] Read more »
Divided America Revealed as Women, Hispanics Back Obama
President Barack Obama successfully reassembled his diverse coalition of minority, women and youth voters to propel himself to a second White House term. The victory yesterday came even as the electorate remains divided like two foreign lands, split between men and women, whites and minorities, rich and poor, young and […] Read more »
Election confirms deep ideological divide
The 2012 presidential election confirmed an unpleasant fact about modern American politics: Americans are exceedingly polarized in their political beliefs. The U.S. electorate in 2012 was deeply divided ideologically — and it was reflected in their votes for president. [cont.] Stanley Feldman, Stony Brook, & Jeanne Zaino, Iona (CBS) Read more »