… On Nov. 4, a group of senior campaign advisers agreed to describe their cutting-edge efforts with TIME on the condition that they not be named and that the information not be published until after the winner was declared. What they revealed as they pulled back the curtain was a […] Read more »
Election Result Proves a Victory for Pollsters and Other Data Devotees
It was not on any ballot, but one of the biggest election contests this week pitted pundits against pollsters. It was a pitched battle between two self-assured rivals: those who relied on an unscientific mixture of experience, anecdotal details and “Spidey sense,” and those who stuck to cold, hard numbers. […] Read more »
As Electorate Changes, Fresh Worry for G.O.P.
… The demographic changes in the American electorate have come with striking speed and have left many Republicans, who have not won as many electoral votes as Mr. Obama did on Tuesday in 24 years, concerned about their future. The Republicans’ Southern strategy, of appealing mostly to white voters, appears […] Read more »
Values, Not Demographics, Won the Election
Much of the coverage of Tuesday’s results has focused on the strength of Barack Obama’s coalition — minorities, women and young voters. But that analysis misses the real point. The contours of the 2012 presidential race were shaped less by the country’s changing demographics than by the underlying attitudes and […] Read more »
How Did Pollsters Fare on Election Night?
Despite the challenges facing pollsters, including declines in landline telephone penetration and in response rates, polling firms generally did a good job of calling the presidential election. National polls just ahead of the election showed President Barack Obama holding a slim lead, and he was ahead by 2.2 percentage points […] Read more »
Exit Polls Can’t Explain Why Obama Won
We all know that President Obama won re-election last night. But why did he win? My colleague Jon Cohn makes a persuasive broad-brush argument, but when I try to identify, from exit poll data, the specific Obama policies that voters ratified, the exercise proves weirdly difficult. [cont.] Timothy Noah, New […] Read more »