President Barack Obama won the two-party vote among female voters in the 2012 election by 12 points, 56% to 44%, over Republican challenger Mitt Romney. Meanwhile, Romney won among men by an eight-point margin, 54% to 46%. That total 20-point gender gap is the largest Gallup has measured in a […] Read more »
Mixed Message: Divided Nation Is Still Divided
Tuesday’s results were not unexpected, but that doesn’t mean they shouldn’t send shock waves through the political establishment. The president was re-elected at the same time Democrats retained the Senate and Republicans continued to hold the House, but the elections seem to raise more questions about the future for the […] Read more »
Polling, Likely Voters, and the Law of the Commons
… We would always like to make a final poll estimate that is exactly on target with the final popular vote percentage for both candidates. That is the goal. But our estimate (and almost all other national polls at the end), gave a broadly accurate picture of what was, in […] Read more »
Maps of the 2012 US presidential election results
Most of us are, by now, familiar with the maps the TV channels and web sites use to show the results of presidential elections. … The states are colored red or blue to indicate whether a majority of their voters voted for the Republican candidate, Mitt Romney, or the Democratic […] Read more »
Identifying the ‘Missing’ Voters of 2012
Here are three things you probably have not heard much about as regards turnout on Tuesday: Forty-two percent (42%) of the drop in turnout is coming from the nine percent (9%) of the vote that comes from the “Hurricane Sandy region” of CT, NJ, and NY. Turnout was UP in […] Read more »
White voter decline in 2012: the conundrum behind the cliche
… You’ve probably heard a demographic story like the one I’m about to tell you regarding the 2012 elections. President Obama won re-election by taking advantage of an expansion of the Latino portion of the electorate. In the network exit polls, Latinos grew their percentage of the electorate from 8.4% […] Read more »