… Senior Romney advisers, echoed by conservative commentators, expected the electorate in 2012 to look more like 2004, when it was older and whiter and thus more evenly balanced between Republicans and Democrats. … Some pollsters, acting more like therapists, tried to comfort Republicans with surveys that unrealistically assumed an […] Read more »
More Evidence Regarding Importance of Economic Fundamentals in 2012 US Presidential Election
On August 1, 2012, we prepared a forecast of the 2012 presidential vote for PS. Our model contains two variables: (1) the cumulated weighted growth in leading economic indicators (LEI) through the 13th quarter of the current presidential term and (2) the incumbent party candidate’s share in the most recent […] Read more »
Has the Emerging Democratic Majority Emerged?
… I will spare myself the furious replies from academics by stipulating there is no realignment going on. What is going on is a change, rooted mainly in demographics, that is making the traditional conservative formula obsolete. [cont.] Jonathan Chait, New York Magazine Read more »
How well did pollsters predict House of Representatives voting?
The 2012 election was full of surprises. For example, the Democrats not only kept, but actually expanded their Senate majority. The result in the House of Representatives was, however, more predictable than there being rush-hour traffic at the Holland Tunnel. [cont.] Harry Enten, The Guardian Read more »
Gay Vote Proved a Boon for Obama
While President Obama’s lopsided support among Latino and other minority voters has been a focus of postelection analysis, the overwhelming support he received from another growing demographic group — Americans who identify as gay, lesbian or bisexual — has received much less attention. But the backing Mr. Obama received from […] Read more »
Changing Religious Landscape Challenges Influence of White Christian Vote
A new survey conducted after the election last week confirms that winning an overwhelming majority of white Christian voters is no longer sufficient to secure the presidency. The 2012 Post-Election American Values Survey, conducted by Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI), found that like previous GOP candidates, Governor Mitt Romney’s base […] Read more »