… Exit polls show that married voters chose Mitt Romney over Barack Obama by a significant margin of 56 percent to 42 percent. But Romney lost voters unmarried voters by an even wider margin (35 percent vs. 62 percent). This marriage gap is nothing new: married folks have trended Republican […] Read more »
Hurricane Sandy’s Predictably Small Effect On The Election
In case you hadn’t heard, there was a big storm right before the election. Despite no real evidence, pundits, and even some scholars, have tried to demonstrate an effect of Hurricane Sandy on the election outcome. Is it possible that it had an effect? The likelihood that the hurricane had […] Read more »
Votamatic: Evaluating the Forecasting Model
Since June, I’ve been updating the site with election forecasts and estimates of state-level voter preferences based on a statistical model that combines historical election data with the results of hundreds of state-level opinion polls. … With the election results (mostly) tallied, it’s possible to do a detailed retrospective evaluation […] Read more »
What’s Up with White Women in 2012? Nothing new!
… What’s up with white women? Absolutely nothing. White women have not reversed or changed course. In 2012 and the two elections before that, white women voted about the same way they’ve been voting since the 1970s: almost always for the Republican Presidential candidate. Surprise that white women are doing […] Read more »
How Latinos Are Transforming the Electoral Map
… What can the Republican Party do in the face of a demographic transformation that seems to threaten the GOP’s very status as a national party? I put this question to Stanford University’s Gary Segura, a political scientist who heads the polling group Latino Decisions and is a co-author of […] Read more »
Video: How Voters Graded the 2012 Campaign
The PBS NewsHour’s Hari Sreenivasan speaks with Andy Kohut of the Pew Research Center. Read more »