In late September, I was involved in an email exchange in which a historian stated that “Someone should do a piece cataloging down all the poli sci consensi being undone this season.” Now I can write with some confidence that the findings of the political science canon were largely confirmed […] Read more »
The 2012 Election, in a Relative Sense
… In 46 states and the District of Columbia, President Obama did worse in 2012 than he did in 2008, winning by less or losing by more. The vote in most counties, too, shifted to the political right. But separating out the national political environment from more fundamental and potentially […] Read more »
In Wyoming, Conservatives Feeling Left Behind
By now, voters here are over the initial shock. The ranchers, businessmen and farmers across this deep-red state who knew, just knew that Americans would never re-elect a liberal tax-and-spender president have grudgingly accepted the reality that voters did just that. But since the election, a blanket of baffled worry […] Read more »
California: Support from minorities, young voters helped push Proposition 30 to victory
Young voters and minority voters overwhelmingly supported Proposition 30 at the polls, helping to lift Gov. Jerry Brown’s ballot initiative to a decisive win, according to the results of the latest USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences/Los Angeles Times Poll. The measure will increase the state sales tax […] Read more »
Gallup Blew Its Presidential Polls, but Why?
Last week’s presidential election has widely been seen as a victory for pollsters who, on balance, saw President Obama as the favorite before Election Day. But that wasn’t the case for the esteemed Gallup Organization. Its polling showed Republican Mitt Romney with a significant lead among likely voters 10 days […] Read more »
Applause for the Numbers Machine
The biggest winners on Election Day weren’t politicians; they were numbers folks. Computer scientists, behavioral scientists, statisticians and everyone who works with data should be proud. They told us who was going to win, but they also helped to make many of those victories happen. Three groups of geeks deserve […] Read more »