Were Obama’s Early Ads Really the Game Changer?

Many post-mortems of the 2012 presidential campaign suggest that Mitt Romney erred by allowing President Obama to “define” him early through an advertising blitz in battleground states. … The problem, however, is that there is very little evidence that these early ads mattered much, according to research I have done […] Read more »

The Growing Electoral Clout of Blacks Is Driven by Turnout, Not Demographics

Blacks voted at a higher rate this year than other minority groups and for the first time in history may also have voted at a higher rate than whites, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of census data, election day exit poll data and vote totals from selected cities […] Read more »

2012 Polling Accuracy: Right Winner, But Different Trends

… While the public polls collectively predicted an Obama victory, they also understated Obama’s margins, both nationally and in a half-dozen battleground states. And, perhaps more importantly, some polls told very different stories about how much voter preferences shifted over the final weeks of the campaign. [cont.] Mark Blumenthal, Huffington […] Read more »