Many post-mortems of the 2012 presidential campaign suggest that Mitt Romney erred by allowing President Obama to “define” him early through an advertising blitz in battleground states. … The problem, however, is that there is very little evidence that these early ads mattered much, according to research I have done […] Read more »
Best year in Washington: Nate Silver
… Every election cycle turns out its stars — likely and unlikely — and there’s no question that Silver and his FiveThirtyEight blog for the New York Times shone the brightest in 2012. For most of the campaign, Silver toiled, if not in obscurity, than in the insular world of […] Read more »
The top five polling lessons from the 2012 election
The 2012 election is in the books, and as we head into the new term filled with new elections, there are polling lessons we should take with us. Yet, as this list of the top five polling rules from 2012 will demonstrate, there will always be exceptions to the rule. […] Read more »
The Growing Electoral Clout of Blacks Is Driven by Turnout, Not Demographics
Blacks voted at a higher rate this year than other minority groups and for the first time in history may also have voted at a higher rate than whites, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of census data, election day exit poll data and vote totals from selected cities […] Read more »
2012 Polling Accuracy: Right Winner, But Different Trends
… While the public polls collectively predicted an Obama victory, they also understated Obama’s margins, both nationally and in a half-dozen battleground states. And, perhaps more importantly, some polls told very different stories about how much voter preferences shifted over the final weeks of the campaign. [cont.] Mark Blumenthal, Huffington […] Read more »
25 Interesting Facts about the 2012 Elections
As we prepare to truly turn the page on the 2012 election and begin to focus on the 2014 cycle, here are 25 interesting facts about the 2012 election that you probably didn’t know. … President Obama won 77 percent of all counties with a Whole Foods Market, and just […] Read more »