In this paper I examine the fundamental factors that shaped the 2012 presidential campaign and ultimately produced a fairly close but decisive victory for Barack Obama. I argue that the voting patterns seen in 2012 both at the state level and at the individual level reflected an increasingly partisan and […] Read more »
What If the Obama Campaign Didn’t Win Him the Election?
In the wake of the 2012 election, it’s become commonplace to credit Obama’s “formidable” campaign for his victory. I’ve already begun to challenge that narrative a bit. This post will continue to do so. [cont.] John Sides, George Washington U. (The Monkey Cage) Read more »
The 2012 Election: What Happened, What Changed, What it Means
In the fall of 2011, Barack Obama’s prospects for reelection did not appear bright. After the failure of his “grand bargain” talks with House Speaker John Boehner, his approval rating plunged to a new low. Economic growth was mediocre, unemployment remained stubbornly high, and the public’s confidence in the future […] Read more »
Biggest moves in religion and politics in 2012
Considering that 2012 saw the first presidential contest in which there was no white mainline Protestant anywhere on the presidential ticket, religion played a surprisingly subtle role in the election cycle. But even if religion played more of a supporting than a leading role in the election, the religion factor […] Read more »
My 2012 polling predictions with hindsight: a few mea culpas
The new year is nearly upon us. This past year, I’ve contributed a fair share of columns that I think were quite good, but I’ve also written some columns that could have been better. I believe that any good analysts must learn from his or her errors. So here, without […] Read more »
Video: The wild ride to Election Day
CNN National Political Correspondent Jim Acosta counts down the top 10 moments on what was a wild ride to the Election Day this year. CNN Read more »