The Emerging Democratic Presidential Majority: Lessons of Obama’s Victory

In this paper I examine the fundamental factors that shaped the 2012 presidential campaign and ultimately produced a fairly close but decisive victory for Barack Obama. I argue that the voting patterns seen in 2012 both at the state level and at the individual level reflected an increasingly partisan and […] Read more »

The 2012 Election: What Happened, What Changed, What it Means

In the fall of 2011, Barack Obama’s prospects for reelection did not appear bright. After the failure of his “grand bargain” talks with House Speaker John Boehner, his approval rating plunged to a new low. Economic growth was mediocre, unemployment remained stubbornly high, and the public’s confidence in the future […] Read more »

Biggest moves in religion and politics in 2012

Considering that 2012 saw the first presidential contest in which there was no white mainline Protestant anywhere on the presidential ticket, religion played a surprisingly subtle role in the election cycle. But even if religion played more of a supporting than a leading role in the election, the religion factor […] Read more »