… What could be heartening for Democrats, who haven’t won a statewide race since the early days of the Clinton administration, is that the state is trending urban — and those places are starting to turn blue. The bad news is that they’re still getting clobbered in rural and exurban […] Read more »
Video: Katie Couric asks Nate Silver about 2012, 2016, and baseball
At the Aspen Ideas Festival, Nate Silver talks with Katie Couric about the last presidential election, the next presidential election, and baseball. NOTE: Audio begins at 06:10. Read more »
Is it really the GOP’s anti-immigration stances that turn off Latinos?
Pundits left and right have embraced the notion that the Republican Party has a strong political interest in passing comprehensive immigration reform. As the argument goes, the GOP lost a good shot at the presidency in 2012 because of a pro-Obama shift among Latino voters, which itself was a reaction […] Read more »
PredictWise’s Election Performance
We start with three different types of data … Voter Intention Polling Data … Fundamental Data … Prediction Market Data … One simple question motivates our method, what combination of these three key data types creates the most accurate, relevant, and timely forecasts (i.e., the most efficient and useful forecasts […] Read more »
Gallup’s Open Book
It isn’t unusual for individuals, organizations, or even political parties to make mistakes, but it is unusual, certainly in Washington, to see anyone own up to them. What is truly extraordinary is for any person or group to conduct, release, and publicize an exhaustive research project detailing what went wrong […] Read more »
Gallup blew the 2012 election. Can the polling firm bounce back?
If Nate Silver was the winner of last year’s presidential election, then Gallup was the loser. The long-time leader in polling consistently showed Mitt Romney ahead, sometimes by a decisive margin. And then President Barack Obama won by 3.9 points—5 points off of Gallup’s final margin. In response, Gallup launched […] Read more »