… Here is a look at how the stock market and unemployment rate during President Obama’s time in the White House stack up against recent incumbent presidents vying for a second term. [cont.] Karen Yourish and Laura Stanton, Washington Post Read more »
The Cost of Living Blues
… Voters in a Pew survey released on Aug. 22 place more of the responsibility for the nation’s economic problems on Congress, on financial institutions, on corporations, on the Bush administration and on foreign competition than they do on the Obama administration. The central goal of the Romney campaign over […] Read more »
Obama’s Enthusiasm Deficit Could Soon Haunt Him
… Three demographic groups turbocharged Obama’s 7-percentage-point victory over John McCain in 2008: young voters ages 18-29, Latinos, and African-Americans. Their influx changed the composition of the electorate that year, making it look quite different from the makeup of voters in 2000 and 2004. Whether the 2012 electorate looks more […] Read more »
Democratic Convention A Chance to Sell Obamacare
The Affordable Care Act, aka Obamacare, has been making a modest comeback since the Supreme Court ruled in June that it is indeed constitutional. … But the true measure of the controversial health law’s standing, with Obama and the public, will be how it is handled at the Democratic National […] Read more »
National Conditions and Incumbency Model: Forecast
Now that I have final summer data from the Survey and Consumers I can generate a forecast from my National Conditions and Incumbency model. The gist of my model is that the incumbent presidential party is held accountable for prevailing national conditions but that the level of accountability depends upon […] Read more »
Mitt Romney’s Magic Number
Mitt Romney’s campaign has identified 38% as the “magic number” of Latino voters they need to secure victory over President Obama in the November election. This seems rather ambitious; John McCain earned 31% of the Latino vote in 2008, and Romney stands at a mere 26% ten weeks before the […] Read more »