Although the next presidential election is more than two years away, pundits are already trying to parse the meaning of polling data even though trial heats polls this far in advance of the election are practically worthless. The same goes for the recently concluded Conservative Political Action Conference straw poll […] Read more »
Peril of Ignoring Change
According to the Census Bureau, for the first time in more than a century, the annual number of deaths among white Americans exceeded the number of births. Add to that the facts that Asians are now the fastest-growing minority in the U.S., and a majority of American children younger than […] Read more »
Why Minimum Wage Threatens Republicans
A frank admission: Political reporters, including yours truly, absolutely cherish exit polls of voters. … Here is one gem from the last presidential election that really surprised me. … Among the just over one in five voters who answered “cares about people like me” as their most important quality in […] Read more »
No, 71 percent of Obama voters don’t regret voting for him
Conservative Web sites pounced on a shocking new poll Tuesday: 71 percent of people who supported President Obama in 2012 now said that they regret their vote, according to pollster YouGov. … Unfortunately for conservatives, the unbelievable poll was unbelievable for a reason: It was wrong. CONT. Aaron Blake, Washington […] Read more »
How politically moderate are Americans? Less than it seems.
… While it is true that most Americans consider themselves to be near the center of the ideological spectrum (either moderates or “slightly” liberal or conservative using the standard seven-point liberal-conservative scale), there are two reasons to expect that many of these moderates are illusory. In truth, the American electorate […] Read more »
Obama’s Not-So-Big Data
… The innovations of moneyball in politics and the way the Obama campaign deployed data are real and important. But those innovations have not gone as far as the hype says they did. Can political campaigns use data to predict exactly how we’ll vote? Can they subtly manipulate our votes? […] Read more »