After an Obama bounce prompted a wave of articles about Romney’s dwindling chances, Romney’s pollster Neil Newhouse published a memo detailing the case for a comeback. Perhaps the most striking element of the memo was the complete absence of polling data, but his strained reconceptualization of the 1980 race was […] Read more »
Romney’s chief opponent is not Obama. It’s time.
… When Republicans miss a step or drag their feet, the odds that Obama will win a second term rise. When economic news is front and center, those odds decline. If everything stays the same from one day to the next, the odds list toward Obama for the simple reason […] Read more »
Three Factors That Could Change the Race
… Setting aside imponderables—such as the course of the violent anti-American protests unfolding in Egypt and Libya—here’s how each side is shaping views of some of the factors in the contest: The behavior of undecided voters, the nature of voter enthusiasm and the opportunity of the upcoming presidential debates. [cont.] […] Read more »
In defense of ‘dumb’ poll questions
On Tuesday morning, we wrote about a question in the latest Washington Post-ABC News poll that asked: “On a ship in a storm, who would you rather have as the captain?” The response — via Twitter, Facebook and even email (yes, people still email sometimes) — was overwhelming and (stunningly, […] Read more »
Democrats Now More Positive on Campaign 2012
In the wake of the party conventions, Democrats express increasingly positive views of the presidential campaign. And today, substantially more Democrats than Republicans view the campaign as interesting and informative. [cont.] Pew Read more »
Obama Resurfaces in Favorability, Re-opening the Popularity Gap
Barack Obama crossed into majority favorability among registered voters for the first time since spring in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll, further evidence of a convention boost. Mitt Romney trails in popularity, albeit with a number near his own high. [cont.] Gary Langer, ABC News Read more »