… Now comes a new paper from Dean Lacy of Dartmouth College, which aims to answer the question of whether the “takers” do indeed vote Democratic no matter what. The short answer is a qualified ‘no’: “benefiting from government spending has no effect on the probability of voting for Obama […] Read more »
NPR poll in Senate battleground points to finish near 50-50
These 12 battleground U.S. Senate races take place in a country deeply discontented with the state of the country, all national leaders, and political parties. With 10 of 12 seats held by Democrats but won by Romney by 8 points in 2012, this will be a competitive year to be […] Read more »
Can turnout save the Democrats in 2014?
A popular theory about elections today goes like this: Democrats can’t win midterm elections because Democrats don’t vote in midterm elections. Certainly Barack Obama seems to buy this theory. But how much is lower turnout a factor in the challenges facing Democrats? Maybe less than you think. A significant challenge […] Read more »
Gallup seeks fixes after 2012 miss
Eighteen months after the Gallup Organization incorrectly showed Mitt Romney leading President Barack Obama on the eve of the 2012 presidential election, the legendary but embattled polling firm unveiled additional research aimed at fine-tuning their methodology before the 2016 campaign. Gallup conducted polls last year in New Jersey and Virginia […] Read more »
The Minimal Class Divide in American Politics
How deep is the class divide in American politics today? According to some scholars and pundits, it is very deep indeed. In a recent post on the Washington Post’s Monkey Cage blog, Larry Bartels of Vanderbilt University, the author of Unequal Democracy and a highly regarded public opinion scholar, presented […] Read more »
How the President Got to ‘I Do’ on Same-Sex Marriage
… The assumption going into the 2012 campaign was that there was little to be gained politically from the president’s coming down firmly in favor of same-sex marriage. In particular, his political advisers were worried that his endorsement could splinter the coalition needed to win a second term, depressing turnout […] Read more »