Even before Jeb Bush announced he was exploring a run for the presidency in 2016, the question emerged: Could Mr. Bush win the nomination without pandering to the Republican party’s conservative base in the primaries? The answer from many strategists was an uncomfortable no. Moreover, these same strategists are quick […] Read more »
The tea party’s anti-Washington consensus
The tea party movement has been called out for many things, not least of which is championing positions that would make Barry Goldwater blush. This begs the question: What separates the tea party from Republicans or from the conservative movement at large? CONT. Erin K. Jenne (Central European U.), The […] Read more »
Why data-driven campaigning matters in the 2014 US elections and beyond
… Profiling voters isn’t novel, nor is the use of demographic data. What’s new is the explosion of data collection around other activities that can inform those profiles and models of behaviors: what you buy, what you watch, what you “like,” what you share, or which people or brands you […] Read more »
Why so many Americans hate politics
In a time of political polarization, one thing still unites left, right and center: the disdain people have for Washington, their elected leaders and the political system. Everywhere people look, there are reasons to feel shut out, manipulated or deprived of the whole truth. Big money permeates political campaigns. Political […] Read more »
The mythical swing voter
… The short story is much of the apparent changes in public opinion are actually changes in patterns of nonresponse: When it looked like Romney jumped in popularity, what was really happening was that disaffected Democrats were not responding to the survey while resurgent Republicans were more likely to respond. […] Read more »
The Enthusiasm Gap, Overrated
Recent polls have shown the GOP to have a significant edge in enthusiasm regarding the upcoming mid-term elections. Nearly without exception, Republicans are more excited, enthusiastic and energized about voting in the November election than their Democratic counterparts. The straight-forward conclusion is that this enthusiasm gap will play out at […] Read more »