… In the past 30 days, there were 91 national polls (including each Gallup and Rasmussen daily tracking survey). Mr. Obama was at or above the magic number of 50% in just 20. His average was 47.9%. Mr. Romney’s was 45.5%. There were 40 national polls over the same period […] Read more »
Abortion Is Threshold Issue for One in Six Voters
Economic policy may be dominating this year’s presidential campaign, but the abortion issue appears no less relevant to U.S. registered voters than usual. Seventeen percent say they will vote only for candidates for major office who share their own views on abortion, one of the higher rates of abortion-centric voting […] Read more »
Obama’s Lead Among Younger Millennials Widens to 16 Points
Young voters’ support for President Barack Obama has increased significantly since March, a new survey finds, widening to a 16-point advantage among younger Millennials (age 18-25) over Republican challenger Mitt Romney (55 percent vs. 39 percent). The Millennial Values and Voter Engagement survey is the second installment of a two-wave […] Read more »
The Predictive Value of Instant-Reaction Polls
… As I mentioned after the debate, I had not come across a study on the relationship between instant-reaction debate polls and the eventual effect on the horse race polls. So I decided to do a quick one myself. The chart below reflects the candidates that debate watchers deemed to […] Read more »
Latinos show big support for Obama policy
President Barack Obama’s decision to allow some young undocumented immigrants to defer deportation is very popular among Latinos, according to a CNN/ORC International poll released Thursday, pointing to one likely reason the president enjoys high support among the key voting demographic. [cont.] CNN Read more »
When Assessing House, Parties Are in Parallel Universes
… This year, Republicans believe that Democratic pollsters are relying too heavily on the 2008 turnout models, that the samples showing Democrats doing well in key districts include more minority and younger voters than those who will actually turn out. Democrats think Republicans are too wedded to the 2010 models […] Read more »