If you’re looking for an answer to the question of whether last week’s events — Mitt Romney’s strong debate performance in Denver and Friday’s jobs report that showed unemployment dropping to 7.8 percent — changes the trajectory of the presidential campaign, be patient and don’t rush to judgment. … One […] Read more »
September Polls and November Outcomes
Jay DeSart and I have done some work over the years on using September state-wide trial-heat polls to predict presidential election outcomes in the states. … Jay has been good enough to update our model and provide forecasts for the 2012 election. Here’s what it looks like: [cont.] Tom Holbrook, […] Read more »
Suspicion of poll, jobs numbers takes hold on right
As the presidential election reaches its apex in intensity, so have arguments from the right that polls and economic statistics — the numbers used to explain the 2012 campaign — are not to be trusted. The theory that many polls are under-sampling Republicans (and thus overstating the support for Obama) […] Read more »
Congressional Race Remains Close
U.S. registered voters are about as likely to say they would vote for the Democratic congressional candidate in their district if the election were held today as to say they would vote for the Republican candidate, 47% to 46%. [cont.] Jeffrey M. Jones, Gallup Read more »
Shifting Party Allegiances Are Tricky for Pollsters
… In the last few weeks, Republican figures such as Karl Rove and Rush Limbaugh have questioned polls showing leads for President Barack Obama over Republican nominee Mitt Romney—including, in Mr. Rove’s case, in the opinion section of this newspaper. They say many polls are skewed because far more respondents […] Read more »
The First Presidential Debate: A sneak preview of next week’s New Yorker cover
New Yorker cover by Barry Blitt. Read more »