Taking Stock: The Political Environment in the Summer Before an Open-Seat Election

In July 2007, as candidates on both sides of the political aisle jockeyed for position in the forthcoming open-seat presidential election, the Republican Party was facing an election environment headlined by a president from their party with a 29% job approval rating. Today, 16 months before the 2016 open-seat presidential […] Read more »

Clinton Favorability Among Dems Better Than Last Campaign

Hillary Clinton’s net favorability rating among Democrats — defined as the percentage who have a favorable opinion of her minus the percentage with an unfavorable opinion — is higher now than at a similar point leading up to the 2008 presidential election. Her net favorability is also similar to Al […] Read more »

Ted Cruz Says Obama Won Because Evangelicals Stayed Home. Is That True?

Texas Senator Ted Cruz gave his audience at Liberty University on Monday one concrete-sounding reason why he could win the presidency. Too many evangelical Christians, he said, were “staying home” and handing presidential elections to Democrats. … This isn’t just one senator’s theory. The fear that evangelical voters are staying […] Read more »