Bernie Sanders’s surge doesn’t mean the Democratic race is wide open. Here’s why.

… Even setting aside Barack Obama’s unique potential to appeal to African American voters as a historic racial figure, this frequent comparison of Senator Obama in 2007 and Senator Sanders in 2015 is deeply flawed. Just looking at the data from eight years ago shows how much better positioned Barack […] Read more »

Hillary Clinton Says Focus on Delegate Count Is About Learning from ’08 Mistakes

Hillary Clinton says her efforts to rack up the support of top Democrats are about learning from the mistakes of her previous presidential campaign and not about trying to discourage Vice President Joe Biden from entering the presidential race. “This is really about how you put the numbers together to […] Read more »

Here’s why Donald Trump won’t win the Republican presidential nomination

Donald Trump’s authoritative lead in early polling in the 2016 Republican race for the presidential nomination has left Americans excited, confused and afraid. Trump hasn’t been out of first place in national polling since he filed as a candidate with the Federal Election Commission in mid-July. Most polls have him […] Read more »

Voters Were Just As Diverse In 2014 As They Were In 2008

As the United States becomes more diverse, Republicans are supposedly going to suffer. Nothing encapsulated this theory more than President Obama’s 2008 election, powered by nonwhite voters — mainly Hispanics, black people and Asians. In politics, “demographics are destiny,” as the saying goes. But that’s not right, as I have […] Read more »

African American Voters: The Overlooked Key To 2016

Many analysts have devoted endless hours to pondering the Republican Party’s woes with Latino voters and prescriptions for how the party can fix them in time for 2016. … But while Latinos are no doubt an important persuasion target for the GOP, they may not be the minority group most […] Read more »