In 2007, I woke up every morning — alarm set with a 1980s or ’90s TV show theme song — opened my computer and searched the term “poll” on Google. I did this through the spring, summer, fall and winter. And when I did, I saw the same person leading […] Read more »
When Will Iowa Republicans Make Up Their Minds?
… A key question I often get from the press these days is: When will Iowans finally make up their minds? Based on the astonishing number of candidates still under consideration in the Republican field, my answer is: Late, very late. History shows that even in an normal year, Iowans […] Read more »
60 Days Until Iowa: Are the Polls Predicting the Winners?
… Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump now hold comfortable leads in almost all the national polls and most state surveys, though Bernie Sanders is neck and neck with Clinton in the Granite State. What does history say about the predictive power of both the national polls and the state polls […] Read more »
How to Beat Hillary Clinton
This week marks an important anniversary in the political lives of Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. Eight years ago, Hillary Clinton was dominating the young upstart from Illinois in the Democratic primaries. … How did the Obama team turn it around? The conventional wisdom is that he inspired voters with […] Read more »
Watch Out, Joe Biden, Polls Aren’t Kind To Candidates Who Enter Late
The Joe Biden buzz seems to be getting louder by the day. A Biden presidential run would be bad news for Hillary Clinton — even though he’s sitting in third place in Iowa, New Hampshire and national primary polls, behind both Clinton and Bernie Sanders. But if he runs, will […] Read more »
Early Iowa Presidential Polls a Better Predictor Than National Ones
Last month, national polls by CNN/ORC, Fox News and NBC News/Wall Street Journal got plenty of attention, and they certainly helped readers and viewers understand what is going on in the Republican and Democratic presidential contests. But if history is any guide, early national polls are far less valuable in […] Read more »