Clinton Voters Like Obama More Than Sanders Supporters Do

A month ago, the talk about Hillary Clinton’s campaign was of deja vu, with Bernie Sanders adopting Barack Obama’s 2008 model to challenge her from the left. … But where some observers have stressed the continuities with the 2008 nomination fight, others see the opposite: a role reversal. In this […] Read more »

Clinton, Sanders and the Underrated Power of the Black Voter

If you were asked to assess African-American voting power, you might think about the long history of disenfranchisement that still lingers today, in troubles in Ferguson, Mo.; in efforts to roll back the Voting Rights Act; or in recent moves to limit voting access around the country. So it can […] Read more »

Hillary Clinton Needs To Win The Voters She Lost In 2008

Just as in 2008, Tuesday’s New Hampshire’s primary created an “a-ha moment,” illuminating the contours of each Democratic candidate’s coalition. It’s becoming increasingly apparent that Hillary Clinton is relying on a coalition that looks almost the opposite of the one she assembled in 2008. Eight years ago, she prevailed among […] Read more »

Clinton’s Iowa Performance Reveals New Fault Lines for Democrats

… The Democratic Party has historically been described as diverse and disorganized — a patchwork of interests and demographic groups who jostle for control of the party agenda. But after the 2008 Iowa caucuses, it was hard to paint a clear picture of what distinguished the supporters of the three […] Read more »

Are Primary Polls Finally Predictive? No, but This Is When the Fun Starts

You have undoubtedly heard that primary polls aren’t necessarily very predictive far from an election. With just a month to go until the Iowa caucuses, I’m writing to tell you that … it’s still true. Yes, even with that little time left until Iowa, the first contest of the 2016 […] Read more »