Gender and the Presidency: A Look Through Polling History

… Time, Clinton’s ubiquitousness in the political consciousness, the historic nature of Barack Obama’s presidency and her own damagingly high negative ratings have all dampened the drama of Clinton’s crowning as the first female nominee of a major party. And of course, other women have preceded her on the national […] Read more »

Why Democratic Unity Could Be Easier to Achieve This Time: Donald Trump and Barack Obama

… There is mounting concern in Democratic Party circles that even after Clinton clinches the nomination, most likely after the California and New Jersey primaries on June 7, she will have difficulty winning over Sanders’ base of young, liberal voters, many of whom identify themselves in exit polls as independents. […] Read more »

Why is Hillary Clinton doing worse among whites now than in 2008? Racial attitudes.

… The graph below shows that Clinton’s average share of the white vote in 2016 has been 10 points lower than it was against Barack Obama in the states that conducted exit polls in both election years. Meanwhile, her support among blacks is 60 points higher. The dramatic turnaround in […] Read more »

Democrats Have Gotten More Liberal Since 2008, But Not Enough To Nominate Sanders

Bernie Sanders’s campaign has had far more success than most people (including this guy) thought it would. He has gone from a virtually unknown Vermont senator to winning a little more than 40 percent of the national Democratic primary vote. He will probably fall short of the nomination in the […] Read more »

Sanders’s Practically Unprecedented Success

By steadily increasing his support in national polls to the point where it now essentially equals Hillary Clinton’s, Bernie Sanders has crossed a threshold that few other challengers to a heavily favored front-runner have ever reached. But those gains still leave him facing a steep uphill climb to overcome her […] Read more »