Whenever I mention that Hillary Clinton is an overwhelming favorite for the Democratic nomination — and would be even if Senator Elizabeth Warren ran — the conversation usually comes back to 2008. “She was supposed to be inevitable last time,” the refrain goes, “and she lost.” I get it. I […] Read more »
The tea party’s anti-Washington consensus
The tea party movement has been called out for many things, not least of which is championing positions that would make Barry Goldwater blush. This begs the question: What separates the tea party from Republicans or from the conservative movement at large? CONT. Erin K. Jenne (Central European U.), The […] Read more »
What the polls looked like at this point in the 2008 election
I spent the last week traveling. Part of the trip was to see family. Part of the trip was a conference. In both cases, though, people wanted to talk about the same thing: the 2016 presidential election. Would Hillary run? Did Rand Paul have a chance? Was Chris Christie finished? […] Read more »
When campaigning backfires: Did a pro-Obama canvass produce McCain supporters?
In the aftermath of the 2012 election, one rare point of bipartisan agreement has been about campaign tactics: Obama had a significant edge in the ground game, many agree. One piece of evidence for that claim was the Obama campaign’s almost three-to-one advantage in its number of field offices. Still, […] Read more »
Is it really the GOP’s anti-immigration stances that turn off Latinos?
Pundits left and right have embraced the notion that the Republican Party has a strong political interest in passing comprehensive immigration reform. As the argument goes, the GOP lost a good shot at the presidency in 2012 because of a pro-Obama shift among Latino voters, which itself was a reaction […] Read more »
No, Joe: even without the 2008 crash, McCain would not have beaten Obama
US Vice-President Joe Biden says a lot of funny things. This weekend, the ever-hilarious veep said that John McCain “probably” would have defeated Barack Obama in the 2008 election – were it not for the global financial crisis following the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy on 15 September 2008. I disagree wholeheartedly […] Read more »