… A key question I often get from the press these days is: When will Iowans finally make up their minds? Based on the astonishing number of candidates still under consideration in the Republican field, my answer is: Late, very late. History shows that even in an normal year, Iowans […] Read more »
Democrats Shouldn’t Expect House Disarray to Help in 2016
With House Republicans in disarray after John Boehner’s likely successor withdrew from the Speaker’s race Thursday, speculation has grown about potential damage to the party’s chances in the 2016 election. Will voters punish the G.O.P. for the actions of a conservative faction that blocked Kevin McCarthy’s ascension and has been […] Read more »
Watch Out, Joe Biden, Polls Aren’t Kind To Candidates Who Enter Late
The Joe Biden buzz seems to be getting louder by the day. A Biden presidential run would be bad news for Hillary Clinton — even though he’s sitting in third place in Iowa, New Hampshire and national primary polls, behind both Clinton and Bernie Sanders. But if he runs, will […] Read more »
In Sanders vs. Clinton, New Hampshire replays past splits
The political headlines out of New Hampshire this weekend bear an eerie resemblance to those of September 1999: an underdog senator overtaking a prohibitive front-runner in the battle for the Democratic presidential nomination. In that case it was then-Sen. Bill Bradley surging ahead of then-Vice President Al Gore. Today it’s […] Read more »
Here’s why Donald Trump won’t win the Republican presidential nomination
Donald Trump’s authoritative lead in early polling in the 2016 Republican race for the presidential nomination has left Americans excited, confused and afraid. Trump hasn’t been out of first place in national polling since he filed as a candidate with the Federal Election Commission in mid-July. Most polls have him […] Read more »
Three Reasons to Be Skeptical of the Bernie Sanders Surge
Vermont Sen. and Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders has had a good summer on the campaign trail. He’s drawing huge crowds at events across the country and a recent New Hampshire primary poll found him leading Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton in the Granite State. But the numbers suggest there are […] Read more »