Donald Trump is making noise about an independent bid for president. If the Republican National Committee doesn’t treat him fairly, Trump says, he’ll be more likely to launch a third-party run. I don’t know if he is at all serious, but I do know two things: History suggests that an […] Read more »
Is Donald Trump the New Ross Perot? Or the Next Pat Buchanan?
We all know what Donald Trump is saying and the issues he’s emphasizing. Many have noted the strong reactions of the media, pundits, and his business associates, some of whom have cut ties. Now the most recent surveys show Trump in the double digits among Republicans nationally. Two new polls […] Read more »
Will Trust Be a Deal-Breaker for Hillary Clinton?
One topic that often comes up in serious conversations about 2016 presidential politics is whether questions about Hillary Clinton’s trustworthiness will be her undoing. Not surprisingly, many of her fiercest critics passionately want this to be the case, but even some of her closest advisers are known to be very […] Read more »
The Trump and the Restless
I promised myself I wouldn’t blog about Donald Trump. But Ron Fournier’s piece about Trump’s candidacy calls for a facts-infused response. Fournier claims that Trump’s candidacy signals “restlessness” in the electorate, specifically among protest voters. There are three main problems with this analysis: lack of specific data about citizens’ actual […] Read more »
Does VA Gov Explain the 1992 Perot Vote?
One more time into the question about the VA-Gov polls and the election results. I came up with a possible (and speculative) explanation based on the condition of two candidates who were not especially popular among their own parties, along with a sufficiently well-publicized third candidate. CONT. Jonathan Bernstein, A […] Read more »