It’s Time for Democrats to Break the Glass

· Leave a Comment

The next few weeks will likely answer the most crucial question that emerged from last year’s insurrection by supporters of Donald Trump: Can one political party defend American democracy on its own?

In the days after the January 6 attack, it appeared possible that many Republicans would join Democrats in a cross-party coalition to defend democracy against the autocratic threat. But instead, Trump has consolidated his control over the GOP, led a movement to purge Republican elected officials who resisted his unfounded claims of fraud, and solidified the belief among the party’s voters that Joe Biden is an illegitimate president. Rather than renouncing Trump’s discredited claims, his Republican allies have cited them to justify passing dozens of laws in multiple red states reducing access to the ballot and increasing partisan control over election administration and tabulation. …

The refusal of almost all elected Republicans to take a stand against Trump’s assault has left Democrats in the precarious position of seeking to reinforce the basic pillars of democracy on their own. The next few weeks will mark a crucial test of whether they can muster the unity and determination to do so. CONTINUED

Ronald Brownstein, The Atlantic

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

One year after Jan. 6 U.S. Capitol riot, concern about misinformation is high

· Leave a Comment

As the spread of false information tops the list of the public’s concerns at the moment, a new Ipsos poll finds that nearly half of Americans get a failing grade (defined as answering 5 or fewer questions correctly, out of 10) when asked to determine if a set of statements related to election, Covid-19, and QAnon conspiracies are true or false. The poll also highlights extremely prominent partisan divides, not only on belief in this set of statements, but on broader beliefs around the 2020 presidential election result, the efficacy of masks and vaccines in the fight against Covid, and critical race theory. CONTINUED

Mallory Newall, Chris Jackson & Neil Lloyd, Ipsos

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

The Dissipating Political Impact of Jan. 6

· Leave a Comment

Key Points
• A recurring theme during Donald Trump’s presidency was the emergence of seemingly very negative and very damaging stories that ultimately did not appear to do him long-term harm.
• It may be that Jan. 6, when Trump’s unsubstantiated allegations of fraud in the 2020 election galvanized a crowd of his supporters to storm the U.S. Capitol, is another such story.
• Donald Trump’s position among the American public is largely unchanged from right before the events of Jan. 6, 2021. His position among Republicans remains strong, and the position of his detractors within the party appears weak. And Republicans’ political position in the context of 2022 also appears strong. CONTINUED

Kyle Kondik, Sabato’s Crystal Ball

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

January 6: One year later, Americans still view the Capitol takeover with dismay

· Leave a Comment

One year since the attempt to take over the U.S. Capitol to stop the certification of Joe Biden’s Electoral College victory, little has changed about American opinion about Jan. 6, 2021, according to the latest Economist/YouGov Poll, which revisited many questions about the Capitol takeover from a survey a year ago.

Few Americans approve of the takeover itself, despite a slight increase in support since a year ago. Democrats, Republicans, and Independents all overwhelmingly disapprove. …

Do Americans blame then President Donald Trump for what happened at the Capitol? That depends. Just about as many say Trump urged his supporters to engage in violence that day as say he did not, little changed from a year ago. CONTINUED

Kathy Frankovic, YouGov

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

Do Americans trust their elections?

· Leave a Comment

The Jan. 6 riot at the U.S. Capitol over the certification of the 2020 presidential election was a flashpoint for Americans and the American political system. And it highlighted several key components of a question our researchers have been studying for the last several years: Do Americans trust their elections? Our researchers discuss this moment in the broader context of how Americans view elections, including how trust is impacted by the complexity of the overall system, varying rules on how and when you can vote, and whether the candidate you support wins or loses.

Pew Research Center

The coronavirus debate over school closures has hurt Democrats

· Leave a Comment

The battle over whether schools should be closed to in-person learning because of the coronavirus has ramped up with the Omicron surge. Schools in a number of districts in the country have either gone fully to remote learning or have delayed returning after the holidays. It has also pitted teachers’ unions against some Democrats, who have often been allies.

The issue of closing schools has been incredibly divisive and has had clear political consequences that seem to have hurt Democrats, as Republicans have been more forceful in arguing to keep in-person learning open. …

What’s also notable is that school closings have clearly become less popular as the pandemic has gone on and more has been learned about the virus. Back in March 2020, 90% of Americans said closing schools was necessary to control the virus. CONTINUED

Harry Enten, CNN

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack