Yes, it’s too early to focus on 2024 polling

· Leave a Comment

Once upon a time, in this very same land we still inhabit, midterm election cycles ended and odd-numbered years were free from national campaigns and horse-race speculation. We could spend these off-cycle years discussing issues and policies and the handful of off-year state gubernatorial contests, free from all but the occasional “Will he or won’t he?” (because it’s usually a “he” that we focus on) chatter about who will run for president.

We don’t live in that land anymore. CONTINUED

Natalie Jackson, National Journal

See also: 2024 election polls

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

Americans Largely Pessimistic About U.S. Prospects in 2023

· Leave a Comment

Coming off several challenging years, Americans enter 2023 with a mostly gloomy outlook for the U.S. as majorities predict negative conditions in 12 of 13 economic, political, societal and international arenas.

When offered opposing outcomes on each issue, about eight in 10 U.S. adults think 2023 will be a year of economic difficulty with higher rather than lower taxes and a growing rather than shrinking budget deficit. More than six in 10 think prices will rise at a high rate and the stock market will fall in the year ahead, both of which happened in 2022. In addition, just over half of Americans predict that unemployment will increase in 2023, an economic problem the U.S. was spared in 2022. CONTINUED

Megan Brenan, Gallup

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

Why the right has already won the House speakership election

· Leave a Comment

No matter how they resolve Tuesday’s vote choosing the next speaker of the House, Republicans appear poised to double down on the hard-edged politics that most swing state voters rejected in last November’s midterm election.

Stubborn conservative resistance to House GOP Leader Kevin McCarthy has put the party at risk of precipitating the first speakership election that extends to more than a single ballot since 1923 – and only the second since the Civil War. But even if McCarthy ultimately prevails, the show of strength from the GOP’s conservative vanguard has ensured it enormous leverage in shaping the party’s legislative and investigative agenda. And that could reinforce the image of extremism that hurt Republicans in the midterm election, especially in the key swing states likely to decide the next presidential contest – Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia and Arizona.

Whoever Republicans ultimately select as speaker “will be subject to the whims and the never-ending leveraging of a small group of members who want to wield power,” said former GOP Rep. Charlie Dent, a CNN political commentator. “You’re going to have this group on the far right that is going to continue to push the leadership to go further right on issues.” CONTINUED

Ronald Brownstein, CNN

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

America’s True Divide: Pluralists vs. Zealots

· Leave a Comment

The most important divide in American politics isn’t red versus blue. It’s civic pluralists versus political zealots. This is the truth no one in Washington acknowledges but Americans must realize if we’re going to recover. …

The stupidity of tribalism has made politics primarily about partisan identities, not persuasion or policy. The screamers on the right and left fuel one another. In a nation as big as ours, there is always someone somewhere saying something stupid—but tribalism takes this fact as its lifeblood. And it’s the excuse for otherwise civic-minded Americans to ignore the nuts in their own party and obsess only over the nuts in the other party. We’re tempted to think that the enemy of my enemy is my friend. It takes a genuine leader to remind us that most of the time, the enemy of our enemy is still a jackass. …

The good news is that the American people are bored by this and there’s a huge majority market for something better. Twitter isn’t real life, and cable television doesn’t represent the public. The vast majority of Twitter traffic is driven by less than 2% of the public. According to Pew, less than 6% of Americans generate 99% of political tweets. CONTINUED

Sen. Ben Sasse (R-Neb.), Wall Street Journal

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

Kevin McCarthy’s problem: historically unpopular with a historically small majority

· Leave a Comment

House Republican leader Kevin McCarthy is hoping all’s well that ends well when it comes to becoming speaker of the chamber. The current minority leader and former majority leader may have thought he’d have the speakership locked up by now, but, ahead of the new Congress that begins on Tuesday, he doesn’t.

McCarthy’s problems in securing the top spot in the House are more easily understood when you realize the hand he’s been dealt. He has a historically small majority for a potential first-time speaker, and McCarthy, himself, is historically unpopular compared with other House members who have tried to become speaker. …

A number of Republicans may come to realize that while they can’t vote for McCarthy, there does not appear to be a viable Republican alternative to him becoming speaker at this time. They, therefore, may simply not vote “yes” or “no” on McCarthy at all. This would allow him to slip by assuming he still gets more votes for speaker than the new House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries. CONTINUED

Harry Enten, CNN

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

2023: The Public’s Priorities and Expectations

· Leave a Comment

In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic and facing the highest inflation in years, economic issues are topping the public’s agenda for the federal government in the coming year. Inflation continues to be a major concern going into the new year, but fewer mention gas prices as a top issue compared to June 2022. Most Americans do not expect things to get better in the upcoming year.

To explore the public’s agenda for 2023, The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research conducted a poll in December 2022, in which respondents provided up to five volunteered issues that they believe should be priorities for the federal government in 2023.

Immigration remains a major priority and climate change is mentioned more frequently as a priority than it was in June. Mentions of education have remained basically unchanged over the last several years. Crime and violence are another high-ranking priority area, though gun issues are not mentioned as often. CONTINUED

AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack