68% of voters say Biden is ‘too old for another term’ — and more Democrats agree than disagree

· Leave a Comment

Nearly 7 in 10 registered voters (68%) now say President Biden is “too old for another term,” according to a new Yahoo News/YouGov poll — and more Democrats agree (48%) than disagree (34%) with that assessment. …

For Democrats, the problem is not Biden’s performance in office; they overwhelmingly approve (77%) rather than disapprove (20%) of how the 80-year-old is handling the job. Registered voters who are Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents also say they would prefer to renominate Biden for president (47%) rather than “someone else” (34%) — a reversal from the latter part of last year, when a plurality of Democrats repeatedly said they would prefer someone else. CONTINUED

Andrew Romano, Yahoo News

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

Republicans Retain Edge in Electoral College Tie

· Leave a Comment

Key Points
• If no candidate receives a majority of Electoral College votes, the U.S. House of Representatives elected in the 2024 election would decide the presidency.
• Republicans are very likely to continue to control enough House delegations to select the GOP nominee as the winner, meaning that 269 is effectively the winning Electoral College number for Republicans, while it’s 270 for Democrats.
• Republicans currently control 26 of the 50 House delegations, the bare majority to win in the House if the Electoral College does not produce a majority winner. CONTINUED

Kyle Kondik, Sabato’s Crystal Ball

Current control of U.S. House delegations

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

While Californians view Newsom in very positive terms, clouds loom with regard to his managing the state’s impending budget deficit.

· Leave a Comment

The latest Berkeley IGS Poll finds that when state voters are asked their opinions of six high profile California politicians, Governor Gavin Newsom receives the best rating, with 54% viewing him favorably and 41% unfavorable. Newsom job approval rating is similar (55% approve vs. 39% disapprove). Yet, clouds loom on the horizon as majorities say they are not confident that he and the legislature will be able to manage the state’s impending budget deficit in a way that will avoid significant cutbacks to programs and services.

Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Vice President Kamala Harris receive the next largest proportions of favorable voter appraisals, with slightly less than half viewing each favorably, although about as many voters also hold unfavorable views of them. … Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy fares the poorest in these rankings, with nearly twice as many voters viewing him unfavorably as favorably. CONTINUED

Mark DiCamillo, Berkeley IGS Poll

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

The three Republican factions: Non-cons, normie-cons, and disaffected leaners

· Leave a Comment

The current moment in the Republican Party is summed up well by a quote from Teresa Cosby, a Furman University political science professor, on former governor (and current GOP presidential candidate) Nikki Haley’s role in removing the Confederate flag from South Carolina Capitol grounds: “It’s just going to score her points with people who want the Republican Party to return to some normalcy. But how many of those groups are left in the Republican Party?”

I’ve been thinking about this question for quite a while now. It’s relatively easy to see which elected officials and Republican elites are in the return-to-normal camp and which are not. It’s much less clear where the potential Republican electorate sits. I’ve been crunching loads of survey data over the last few months, and I’ve generally concluded that the potential Republican voters split roughly evenly into three camps: non-cons, normie-cons, and disaffected leaners. CONTINUED

Natalie Jackson, National Journal

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

2024 poll: DeSantis slides as Trump surges to first head-to-head lead in months

· Leave a Comment

A new Yahoo News/YouGov poll shows that after trailing for the last three months, former President Donald Trump has suddenly surged to a substantial lead over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in a two-man matchup for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination.

Previously, DeSantis led Trump 45% to 41% among Republican voters. Now Trump leads DeSantis 47% to 39% — a net swing of 12 percentage points in Trump’s direction since early February.

The survey of 1,516 U.S. adults, which was conducted from Feb. 23 to Feb. 27, suggests that Trump could prove more resilient in 2024 than his rivals had hoped — and more difficult for someone like DeSantis to defeat. CONTINUED

Andrew Romano, Yahoo News

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

Biden Job Approval at 42%; Below 40% on Four Issues

· Leave a Comment

President Joe Biden’s job approval rating is steady at 42% and similar to his 41% rating for handling foreign affairs. One year into the Russia-Ukraine war, 46% of Americans approve of Biden’s handling of the Ukraine situation, but approval of his handling of relations with Russia (37%) and China (32%) are lower.

On the domestic front, Biden continues to garner his highest approval rating for the coronavirus response (53%), while ratings of his handling of the economy (34%) and immigration (33%) remain weak. CONTINUED

Megan Brenan, Gallup

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack