Uptick in legislation suggests transgender issues are the GOP’s new cultural frontier

· Leave a Comment

The culture wars in American politics take place on a variety of fronts, but the battles over gender and sexuality have come to the forefront in recent months with Republicans leading the legislative charge in states across the country.

From laws banning transgender youth from participating in sports to bills that restrict drag shows, there’s been a proliferation of GOP proposals targeting the LGBTQ community. These increasingly restrictive measures raise questions around what might be next and what political fallout the moves might bring. …

Last week a poll from NPR and PBS showed little evidence that the GOP’s approach on these issues is a winner with voters as a whole, at least not nationally. CONTINUED

Dante Chinni, NBC News

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

Post-indictment poll: Trump surges to largest-ever lead over DeSantis

· Leave a Comment

A new Yahoo News/YouGov poll — one of the first conducted after former President Donald Trump was indicted Thursday for his role in paying hush money to a porn star — shows Trump surging to his largest-ever lead over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, his likely 2024 GOP primary challenger, as Republican voters rally around the only president in U.S. history to face criminal charges. …

The survey of 1,089 U.S. adults was conducted in the first 24 hours after a New York grand jury voted to indict Trump, as news about the case continued to break and sink in. For many respondents, the opinions expressed may be tentative and volatile — and some of the shifts evident in this immediate snapshot may be fleeting. …

Beyond the GOP base, Americans as a whole seem to be predictably divided over Trump’s indictment. CONTINUED

Andrew Romano, Yahoo News

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

Trump’s Legal Problems Are Putting the GOP in a Vise

· Leave a Comment

The dilemma for the Republican Party is that Donald Trump’s mounting legal troubles may be simultaneously strengthening him as a candidate for the GOP presidential nomination and weakening him as a potential general-election nominee.

In the days leading up to the indictment of the former president, which Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg announced two days ago, a succession of polls showed that Trump has significantly increased his lead over Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, his closest competitor in the race for the Republican nomination.

Yet recent surveys have also signaled that this criminal charge—and other potential indictments from ongoing investigations—could deepen the doubts about Trump among the suburban swing voters who decisively rejected him in the 2020 presidential race, and powered surprisingly strong performances by Democrats in the 2018 and 2022 midterms. CONTINUED

Ronald Brownstein, The Atlantic

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

Economic Pessimism Persists, With Inflation Still Key Concern

· Leave a Comment

The American public continues to rate the U.S. economy in mostly negative terms in March, with 83% describing current economic conditions as “only fair” or “poor.” Just 16% consider them “excellent” or “good.” Furthermore, 72% think conditions are getting worse, while 23% say they are improving. These consumer views of the nation’s economy round out a highly stable first quarter, with the March results closely matching what Gallup found in January and February. …

With inflation hovering around 6%, the issue continues to be Americans’ biggest specific economic concern; 12% currently name it as the most important problem facing the country. That’s below the recent peak of 20% citing it as the most important problem in October 2022, when the inflation rate was nearly 8%, but still among the highest percentages naming the issue in recent decades. CONTINUED

Lydia Saad, Gallup

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

For Trump’s indictment, don’t expect much movement from the public

· Leave a Comment

Late yesterday, news broke that New York prosecutors are indicting former President Donald Trump on criminal charges, another historic and unprecedented notch in the story of Donald Trump in politics. …

The exact charges are still under seal by the grand jury, but they seem to hinge on money Trump allegedly paid Stormy Daniels to prevent her from sharing the story of their relationship during the 2016 election.

As salacious and historic as the saga is, how is Trump faring in the court of public opinion? How will Trump’s base react to this? Will they stay by his side? Looking at Reuters/Ipsos data from earlier this month and Trump’s first impeachment, it seems like, as of now, they will. CONTINUED

Clifford Young & Sarah Feldman, Ipsos

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

How Major League Baseball fans view the new rules of the game

· Leave a Comment

… A YouGov poll of 1,000 U.S. adult citizens — including 347 baseball fans, or people who say they are very or somewhat interested in MLB — finds that baseball fans are more likely to support than oppose new rule changes.

Among the new rules is a measure called “defensive shift limits” that requires all four infielders to be on the infield dirt or infield grass with two infielders on each side of second base when each pitch is thrown. The rule is more supported (49%) than opposed (26%) among MLB fans, and people who are “very interested” in MLB support the rule by a wider margin (56% to 27%).

Another change will increase the size of the bases from 15 inches wide to 18 inches wide, which is designed to reduce collisions while encouraging more stolen-base attempts. The success of the larger bases during spring training has led some people to predict that the 2023 season will be the “year of the stolen base.” The new rule is supported by a margin of 49% to 29% among MLB fans. CONTINUED

Linley Sanders, YouGov

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack