How the public sees the case on mifepristone

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Today, the Supreme Court is set to rule on the Biden administration’s emergency FDA approval of mifepristone, following conflicting court rulings on whether the drug could still be used. As pundits, politicians, and now Supreme Court Justices weigh in on what should happen, it’s worth asking how the public makes sense of all this.

The policies, rhetoric, and court rulings around abortion don’t always align with public opinion. And while public conversation tends to veer into absolutes, Americans think about abortion in shades of gray. That remains true for the case before the court today.

In anticipation of that, below are five charts on what the public thinks about the case at hand. CONTINUED

Clifford Young, Sarah Feldman & Bernard Mendez, Ipsos

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If Biden’s so unpopular, why isn’t any Democrat posing a serious challenge?

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President Joe Biden was the toast of Ireland last week, as he was treated to a hero’s welcome in a pageant-laden return to his ancestral home.

Meanwhile, back in the USA, Biden is saddled with job approval ratings in the low 40s, a traditional warning sign for any incumbent on the cusp of launching a campaign for reelection. Even more concerning for the president are his ratings among the crucial independent voting block, which sit in the mid-20s to mid-30s, depending on the poll. …

So is the absence of a real primary challenge simply the luck of the Irish?

Mostly, no. CONTINUED

David Axelrod, CNN

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How do Americans feel about a Trump-Biden rematch? ‘Exhaustion’ tops the list.

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With President Biden reportedly set to announce his reelection campaign early next week, more Americans say they feel “exhaustion” over the prospect of a 2024 rematch between Biden and his predecessor Donald Trump than any other emotion, according to a new Yahoo News/YouGov poll.

The survey of 1,530 U.S. adults, which was conducted from April 14 to 17, found that 38% chose exhaustion after being shown a list of eight feelings and asked to select all that “come to mind” when considering another Biden vs. Trump campaign. Among registered voters, the number is even higher: 44%. CONTINUED

Andrew Romano, Yahoo News

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Most Democrats would support Biden if he wins the nomination

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Most adults do not want President Biden to run for a second term. Nearly 3 in 4 do not want him to run again. Among Democrats, 47% would like to see the president run in 2024, up somewhat from 37% who felt the same in a January AP-NORC poll.

However, if Biden does secure the Democratic nomination next year, 41% of Democrats say they will definitely support him and another 40% would probably support him. Only 19% of Democrats say they would not support Biden if their party nominates him for president in 2024. CONTINUED

AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research

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Over Before It Began?

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Based on the chatter in Washington, the race for the Republican nomination is already over. Former President Donald Trump, who looked vulnerable in the immediate aftermath of the 2022 midterms, has regained his footing in spite of (or thanks to) an indictment and more potential legal fallout in the coming weeks.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, flying high in the wake of a successful 2022 reelection campaign, has squandered that momentum and is now languishing far behind Trump in buzz and the polls. He’s flubbed on foreign policy and has been outmaneuvered by Disney. Meanwhile, Trump has effectively undercut DeSantis’ MAGA bonafides with attacks on the governor’s support for Paul Ryan-era entitlement reforms while a member of Congress.

I’m not convinced that we should assume this race is over. Trump is the favorite for the nomination. But it is not a given. CONTINUED

Amy Walter, Cook Political Report with Amy Walter

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Leaning Into State Trends: The Northeast and Greater South

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Key Points
• In the 2020 presidential election, Joe Biden carried 6 states — that were collectively worth 79 electoral votes — by a margin less than his national showing. In some ways, this made his electoral coalition less efficient than that of Barack Obama’s in 2012.
• No state has been within 5 points of the national popular vote in each of the past 6 presidential elections, but Pennsylvania has come the closest, though it has taken on a slight GOP lean.
• Aside from Virginia and Georgia, North Carolina, despite a persistent 6-point GOP lean in recent elections, seems like Democrats’ best southern prospect. CONTINUED

J. Miles Coleman, Sabato’s Crystal Ball

2020 presidential election showing the lean of Biden-won states

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